- Despite a down year for Democrats nationwide, Jay Nixon coasts to re-election
- Despite the persistent "Oust The Incumbents" drumbeat, every member of Missouri's congressional delegation is re-elected. (Yes, that includes Claire.)
- Missouri GOP retain majorities in the General Assembly, but the margin will diminish
- The greatest accomplishment of the 2012 General Assembly will involve a boogeyman conjured up for vote-mongering purposes.
- Sharia law
- Ballot box stuffers
- Illegal immigrants
- CAFOs
- Tax credit junkies
- Online shopping
- Term limits
- Rex H Susa starts chowing down on medicinal hemp, but he'd rather buy it in Arkansas where sales tax would be a bargain nine percent.
- The Euro holds on, at least until Ireland defaults.
- Adele makes a comeback from her throat surgery by recording a stunning rendition of "I'll Fly Away" as the bonus track on her 23 album.
- Mizzou men's basketball finally break through to the Final Four and win their last conference game at Allen Fieldhouse.
- KU reluctantly schedules Mizzou for football, but only after the Big East successfully holds West Virginia hostage the next two years.
- Mizzou's first season in the SEC will result in a respectable bowl bid, likely Chick-Fil-A
- The Chiefs FINALLY draft a quarterback.
- The weather will be far less bizarre than 2011, New Madrid Fault notwithstanding
Having a near veto-proof majority in the General Assembly is only useful if you can wield it, and Republicans fell apart from the word go during last fall's Extraordinary Session. What should have been a significant push for economic development, disaster recovery efforts, tax credit reform, local control of St. Louis City Police, and clean-up of measures that fell by the wayside last session turned into a two-month vegetable that wound up including a house resolution that inadvertently slammed a company with 15,000 employees in Missouri, and a bill which technically can't take effect without a court order stripping the qualifying legislation.
Of course, Nixon would have been a prime target for a principled conservative, unilaterally "withholding" $170 million from the state budget to pay for disaster relief in Joplin, Birds Point, and the Platte Purchase when a half-billion dollar Rainy Day Fund has been set aside for the past 20 years for that very purpose. (Asking five of the state's 14 public four-year universities to lend that amount from their reserves doesn't bode well either.) But as his most likely challenger Tweeted his way into near-political oblivion, his only two Republican challengers are St. Louis plastics magnate Dave Spence and Kansas City lawyer Bill Randles, a native of Northwest Arkansas. Nixon was an easy winner over Kenny Hulshof in 2008 by picking up 61 percent of the vote in Southwest Missouri. His re-election prospects in the region are buoyed with his bringing about the Missouri Solution to counter the November 2010 passage of Proposition B, and his public presence around Joplin in the months following the tornado of 22 May. Unless Spence or Randles start a massive grassroots push in the outstate, it'll be the same story in '12 even if the GOP candidate for President turns out to be a shoe-in for Missouri's 10 electoral votes.
Any mention of Congress' disapproval rating should be taken with a grain of salt, at most. There are 435 voting members of Congress, and most respondents who say the place is dysfunctional still vote to retain their rep, because it's the other 434 who wreck the place. This mentality will prevail again in Missouri in 2012, particularly in the outstate. Graves, Emerson, Hartzler, Leutkemeyer, and Long will secure re-election. Cleaver will be in another dogfight with the addition of Ray, Lafayette, Saline, and southwestern Clay counties, but there will be just enough support in the urban core of Kansas City to keep him around. Clay will remain in St. Louis City, and will likely edge out Russ Carnahan should he run for the 1st. Were Carnahan to run for the 2nd, he would probably win depending on the GOP challenger.
Although I am very skeptical of Obama's chances of claiming Missouri's electoral votes, I see Claire McCaskill squeaking out another close victory. She will campaign heavy in the outstate and find a way to deflect the [damn] many [plane] criticisms [husband's $17m income] that [Obamacare] will [Super-PAC after Super-PAC zeroing in on her] be levied against her. Especially if illegal immigration were to become a campaign issue. The GOP will claim a slim majority in the Senate, but it will not be by way of Missouri.
The House and Senate will not change hands in 2012. Even with several radical adjustments in the house boundaries, the gap is just too wide for Democrats to overcome in one election (particularly with the growth in the Southwest and sub-suburban St. Louis). However, given the bitter stagnation of the Extraordinary Session, and the prospects of not much more being accomplished this session, it would be surprising to see this many Republicans return in 2013.
Part of the reason that majority will diminish:
Hopefully that boogeyman will be the chronic job poachers from a certain state to the west, but with candidates looking to shore up their credentials, expect bill discussed in detail that target any of these boogeymen:
He's back, and in full force. Petitions are circulating around the state on a multitude of issues, most notable an effort by Rex Sinquefield's Let Voters Decide to eliminate the income tax and replace it with a higher, broader sales tax to make up the difference. The Humane Society of the United States, bitter over their ag-jeopardizing Proposition B being substantially reworked with the blessing of Governor Nixon and the Humane Society of Missouri, are fronting Your Vote Counts and pushing a constitutional amendment that would require a 75 percent affirmative vote of the General Assembly to overturn any voter initiative, no matter how flawed the proposal is.
And that's just the tip of the iceberg. Petitions are in the works for updated renewable energy mandates, medical marijuana, an increase in Missouri's lowest-in-the-Western-world 17¢/pack cigarette tax, the prohibition of eminent domain for the benefit of private enterprise, allowing Missouri to vote early, elimination of property taxes, local control of St. Louis City's police force, reform measures for campaign finance, pay day loans, and an increase in the state's minimum wage by $1/hour. Not all of these will get enough signatures, but expect a lot of zombified soccer moms flooding the ballot box with affirmative votes for those that do after seeing carefully crafted TV ads in-between segments of Extra! and Talk Soup.
It's the ticking time bomb that will define the 21st century: whether the sick man that is Europe will be able to recover from what's turned out to be a modern version of Articles of Confederacy. Greece and Italy have taken drastic steps to bring their debt crises under control, but three more Eurozone members are in trouble: Spain, Portugal and Ireland. Even with a centre-right coalition running the Irish Republic, they too will have to make serious changes to avoid defaulting after spending a decade as Europe's fastest-rising economic destination.
Spain and Portugal having to make drastic steps will not impact as much for this reason: the fate of the EU as we know it rests in London's Whitehall. Public opinion of the EU is trending lower and lower. Were Ireland required to make even more drastic steps, supporting the EU will be seen as toxic, particularly in a nation which wails every so often that, "Britons never never never shall be slaves." Seeing the impact of an economic calamity on their doorsteps, rather than in far-flung corners of the continent, will push the Cameron-led Coalition to hold a referendum on the fate of EU membership.
The Euro needs the stalwart financial sector of Canary Wharf to hold on. If they leave the picture, it will collapse and cause greater economic uncertainty that the American economy will have to weather, rather than risk its own solvency for a Marshall Plan 2.0.
Now, the more important picks:
And not just that: She'll record a music video of it featuring the hometown of its songwriter, Albert Brumley
You can't deny the phenomenal vocal power of the Tottenham native. Even if her tracks "Someone Like You" and "Rolling In The Deep" wound up each being played six times a day on CHR and AAA stations, there's dang good reason. After being sidelined last fall with laryngitis that required surgery to preserve her cords, don't count her out. Adele certainly has another album or two up her sleeve, and hopefully someone at Walmart will capitalize on her return by snagging her to sing a bonus track on her next album (which, if the naming scheme continues, would be 23).
Where does "I'll Fly Away" come in? Just 30 minutes away from the Walmart Home Office is the McDonald County hamlet of Powell, which still has a post office and a lot of community spirit anchored by the Albert E Brumley & Sons Publishing Company. Just south of the hamlet is a 97-year-old iron bridge which is unlike any other, and as such was named to the National Registry of Historic Places last year:
The Powell Bridge crosses the scenic Big Sugar Creek, which becomes the oft-rafted Elk River in Pineville. And boy do I mean scenic. Come out here on a sunny spring day and it's the most ethereal blend of natural beauty surrounding a rustic, historic structure. Add in two gems just across the state line: War Eagle Mill east of Rogers and Fisher Ford Bridge south of Siloam Springs, and you'll have the most beautiful music video of 2012. Just make sure the film crew has plenty of Catfish John's.
Mizzou has the second-most number of appearances in the NCAA Men's Basketball tournament without ever reaching the Final Four, now at 24. Provided the Big 12 doesn't throttle the RPI and momentum of the black-and-gold, this team has all the pieces to persevere and at least make it to New Orleans. And claim a victory over their archrival Jayhawks at Allen Fieldhouse, carrying that all the way to the SEC. And speaking of the SEC:
KU do not want to play Mizzou now that the Tigers are preparing to tussle with Gamecocks and Gators. And Mizzou still have three blank spots on their schedule. The only way the rivalry game will continue next season will be by way of the Big East holding West Virginia to the 27-month exit period, resulting in the Big 12 having only eight conference games. This would mean everyone left in the conference would be scrambling to schedule other games. And either they can remain scorned about being left behind and play a cupcake, or boost their strength of schedule by challenging a future SEC contender. This would have certainly helped Oklahoma State this season.
Too bad they don't have any in Columbia (or any chicken places not named Lee's or KFC - insert plea for Zaxby's to finally open up in the Show-Me State), but either way Mizzou will appear in a bowl game and pull off a close win against Clemson. Or it might be the Music City Bowl with a solid win over Louisville. However it works out, Mizzou will make a serious push for the SEC East title and come up just short, though appearing in the Georgia Dome to get blown out by LSU/Bama/Arkansas in the title game will be more than enough to put the Big 12 behind them.
They need one. They really need one, and this year's crop will be bountiful. Quite likely KC will end up with Aaron Murray, who will emulate fellow Georgia product Matthew Stafford in developing a quality offense. However, they'll only be as good as the offensive line, and if the Chiefs don't stock up, Scott Pioli will find himself curating an art museum back in New England.
For a state that took twisters to its 12th largest city and a major airport, flooding along its two major rivers, two epic snowstorms, and a heatwave that peaked at 42°C, we're finally going to get a break and have a not-so-harrowing season. Provided the fewer quakes along the New Madrid Fault in the past couple years doesn't mean it's building up for the big one this year.
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